How often do home teams win in the NPFL?
1 in 10
NPFL matches won by the away side. In the Premier League it is 1 in 3.
- Home wins65.7%
- Draws24.0%
- Away wins10.4%
- Points, home · away2.21 · 0.55
- Home sides won 748 of 1,139 NPFL matches: 66%.
- That is the strongest home record of 13 leagues in Africa and Europe.
- Bookmakers' prices gave away sides 15%. They won 11%.
These are past results, not a tip. No pattern here makes betting safe. If betting stops being fun, Gamble Alert can help.
The NPFL against 12 other leagues
Home sides in the NPFL won 66% of matches over the last 3 seasons. No other league here comes close. The next is the Ghana Premier League, at 58%. The 5 big European leagues sit between 40% and 46%.
- NPFLNigeria · 1,139 65.7% 10.4%
- Ghana Premier LeagueGhana · 899 57.5% 16.6%
- Ligue 1Algeria · 720 49.9% 21.5%
- Ligue 1Tunisia · 648 46.0% 25.2%
- La LigaSpain · 1,140 45.8% 28.2%
- Ligue 1France · 923 44.0% 32.2%
- Premier LeagueEngland · 1,140 43.2% 32.4%
- BundesligaGermany · 924 41.9% 32.6%
- Premier Soccer LeagueSouth Africa · 719 41.9% 28.5%
- Botola ProMorocco · 728 40.7% 28.0%
- Serie AItaly · 1,140 40.2% 31.8%
- Kenya Premier LeagueKenya · 922 35.9% 31.2%
- Egypt Premier LeagueEgypt · 852 35.2% 31.1%
The thin line marks 50%. The number under each name is matches played.
Away sides suffer most. A Premier League side on the road wins 32% of the time, about 3 times as often as an NPFL side. Goals tell the same story: NPFL home sides score 1.50 a match and away sides 0.60.
Champions at home, relegated away
The average NPFL club takes 2.21 points a match at home and 0.55 away. Over a 38-match season, the home rate comes to 84 points. The away rate comes to 21. In the Premier League the 2 rates are 1.54 and 1.22.
- Remo Stars 84% 14%
-
Rivers United 81% 11% -
Shooting Stars 77% 12% -
Enugu Rangers 75% 19% -
Plateau United 75% 11% -
Kano Pillars 72% 7% -
Katsina United 72% 4% -
Abia Warriors 68% 18% -
Enyimba 67% 16% -
Bendel Insurance 65% 11% -
Kwara United 63% 5% -
Niger Tornadoes 58% 14% - Bayelsa United 56% 9%
- Remo Stars won 48 of 57 home matches, 84%.
- Rivers United lost 2 of 57 at home in 3 seasons.
- Enugu Rangers were the best travellers, with 11 away wins in 57.
- Katsina United won 2 of 57 away matches.
- All 27 clubs that played in these seasons won more often at home than away.
Every club's home and away record (27 clubs)
| Club | Seasons | Home W-D-L | Away W-D-L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Remo Stars | 3 | 48-6-3 | 8-9-40 |
| Rivers United | 3 | 46-9-2 | 6-19-32 |
| Shooting Stars | 3 | 44-10-3 | 7-13-37 |
| Ikorodu City | 2 | 29-6-3 | 4-12-22 |
| Enugu Rangers | 3 | 43-8-6 | 11-20-26 |
| Plateau United | 3 | 43-9-5 | 6-9-42 |
| Kano Pillars | 3 | 41-11-5 | 4-10-43 |
| Katsina United | 3 | 41-12-4 | 2-16-39 |
| Abia Warriors | 3 | 39-13-5 | 10-7-40 |
| Enyimba | 3 | 38-14-5 | 9-14-34 |
| Nasarawa United | 2 | 25-9-4 | 5-9-24 |
| Bendel Insurance | 3 | 37-15-5 | 6-21-30 |
| Barau FC | 1 | 12-5-2 | 1-8-10 |
| Kwara United | 3 | 36-15-6 | 3-19-35 |
| Sporting Lagos | 1 | 12-6-1 | 0-4-15 |
| Akwa United | 2 | 23-11-4 | 3-4-31 |
| El Kanemi Warriors | 2 | 22-13-2 | 2-8-28 |
| Niger Tornadoes | 3 | 33-18-6 | 8-9-40 |
| Bayelsa United | 3 | 32-14-11 | 5-20-32 |
| Lobi Stars | 2 | 21-10-7 | 2-7-29 |
| Sunshine Stars | 2 | 21-13-4 | 3-8-27 |
| Kun Khalifat FC | 1 | 10-3-6 | 3-7-8 |
| Heartland | 2 | 19-14-5 | 2-9-27 |
| Doma United | 1 | 9-7-3 | 2-3-14 |
| Warri Wolves | 1 | 9-8-2 | 4-2-13 |
| Gombe United | 1 | 8-5-6 | 0-2-17 |
| Wikki Tourist | 1 | 7-9-3 | 2-4-13 |
Season by season
The gap has narrowed a little. Away wins went from 8.2% in 2023/24 to 11.9% in 2025/26. That is still fewer than 1 in 8.
- 2023/24380 matches 69.2% 8.2%
- 2024/25380 matches 64.2% 11.1%
- 2025/26379 matches 63.6% 11.9%
Do the bookmakers know?
Mostly, but not fully. I took the closing prices on the 486 matches that bookmakers priced, an average of 4 books each, and removed their cut. On average the prices gave home sides 59% and away sides 15%. Home sides won 64% of those matches, and away sides 11%.
- Home win 58.7% 63.8%
- Draw 26.0% 25.7%
- Away win 15.3% 10.5%
That gap is costly. A ₦1,000 stake on every away side, at the average price, lost about ₦419 per bet (give or take ₦165). On a draw the loss was about ₦103. On every home side it was about ₦19, close to even: the home side's better chances roughly paid for the bookmaker's cut, and no more.
| Prices gave the home side | Matches | Prices said | Home won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40–50% | 57 | 46.8% | 56.1% |
| 50–60% | 199 | 55.7% | 59.8% |
| 60–70% | 187 | 64.2% | 71.1% |
| 70–80% | 34 | 73.7% | 73.5% |
What these numbers do not tell you
- Why. Travel, pitches, crowds and refereeing are all blamed for the NPFL's home record. None of them was measured here. The figures show how big the effect is, not what causes it.
- The next match. 66% is an average over 1,139 matches. Home sides still lost 1 match in 10, and a run of results can go against any average.
- A way to win money. Backing every home side came close to even, not ahead. A pattern in past seasons is not a promise about the next one.
- Nigerian bookmakers' prices. The prices above are international bookmakers' closing prices. A Nigerian operator's price on the same match can differ. For what each one charges, see bookmaker margins.
How this was measured
- Seasons. 2023/24 to 2025/26, every finished league match. A season with fewer than 150 finished matches would have been left out; none was.
- Points. 3 for a win, 1 for a draw, as in the league tables. Points per match are for one side: the home side's average, and the away side's.
- Prices. Closing prices on the match result, averaged across the bookmakers that priced each match. About 43% of NPFL matches had prices; the rest had none. Each match's 3 prices were turned into chances that add up to 100%, which removes the bookmaker's cut (a median of 10.4% on these matches).
- Give or take. The ± on a return is 2 standard errors: a range that luck alone can move a figure across.
Use these figures
The numbers and charts on this page are free to use in an article or a post. Please credit PunditNG and link to this page.
Source: PunditNG, punditng.com/research/npfl-home-advantage/
Quick answers
How often do home teams win in the NPFL?
In 66% of matches. Over the 3 seasons from 2023/24 to 2025/26, home sides won 748 of 1,139 NPFL matches. 273 were draws and 118 were away wins.
Which league has the biggest home advantage?
Of the 13 leagues compared here, the NPFL. Home sides won 66% of its matches. Next was the Ghana Premier League at 58%, and the Premier League was at 43%.
Which NPFL club wins most often away from home?
Of the clubs that played all 3 seasons, Enugu Rangers: 11 wins in 57 away matches, or 19%. Katsina United won 2 of 57.
Do bookmakers price NPFL home advantage correctly?
Not fully. On 486 priced matches, the prices gave away sides a 15% chance on average. Away sides won 11% of those matches.
Is it profitable to back the home team in the NPFL?
No. A ₦1,000 stake on every home side at the average price lost about ₦19 per bet over 486 matches. That is close to breaking even, but it is not a profit. Past seasons are no promise about the next one.