PunditNG Get the app

Which teams throw away a late lead?

By · · 6,356 matches, 2023/24 to 2025/26

1 in 7

teams ahead after 75 minutes in Europe's 5 big leagues did not win. In the NPFL it is 1 in 11.

These are past results, not a tip. No team is a sure thing at any minute. If betting stops being fun, Gamble Alert can help.

How safe is a one-goal lead?

Less safe than it feels. In Europe's 5 big leagues, a side one goal up at half-time won 65% of the time. One goal up after 75 minutes, it won 76%. Even after 85 minutes, about 1 in 6 did not win.

One goal up at this minute: how often the leader won 2023/24 to 2025/26
60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0'15'30'45'60'75'90' Europe, 15': 62.2% of 1406 one-goal leads wonEurope, 30': 64.5% of 2043 one-goal leads wonEurope, 45': 65.2% of 2258 one-goal leads wonEurope, 60': 69.8% of 2217 one-goal leads wonEurope, 70': 73.9% of 2181 one-goal leads wonEurope, 75': 76.1% of 2168 one-goal leads wonEurope, 80': 78.9% of 2134 one-goal leads wonEurope, 85': 83.2% of 2118 one-goal leads wonEurope, 88': 86% of 2084 one-goal leads won NPFL, 15': 69.6% of 260 one-goal leads wonNPFL, 30': 73.1% of 416 one-goal leads wonNPFL, 45': 80.8% of 478 one-goal leads wonNPFL, 60': 82.8% of 524 one-goal leads wonNPFL, 70': 85.3% of 524 one-goal leads wonNPFL, 75': 87.4% of 525 one-goal leads wonNPFL, 80': 90.3% of 524 one-goal leads wonNPFL, 85': 91.9% of 529 one-goal leads wonNPFL, 88': 94.5% of 523 one-goal leads won 86% 95%

The scale starts at 60%. The last points are the 88th minute.

One goal up afterEuropeNPFL
15 minutes62.2%69.6%
30 minutes64.5%73.1%
45 minutes65.2%80.8%
60 minutes69.8%82.8%
70 minutes73.9%85.3%
75 minutes76.1%87.4%
80 minutes78.9%90.3%
85 minutes83.2%91.9%
88 minutes86.0%94.5%

League by league

A lead after 75 minutes was least safe in the Premier League: 137 of 832 were not won, 16.5%. The NPFL is the safest league here, at 8.8%: about 1 late lead in 11 not won, against 1 in 7 in Europe.

Ahead after 75 minutes and did not win Share of late leads, 2023/24 to 2025/26
  1. Premier League137 of 832 16.5%
  2. La Liga113 of 774 14.6%
  3. Bundesliga100 of 687 14.6%
  4. Ligue 194 of 656 14.3%
  5. Serie A105 of 752 14.0%
  6. NPFL68 of 772 8.8%

The teams that let it go most

Over 3 seasons, FSV Mainz 05 and Bologna were ahead after 75 minutes and failed to win 12 times each. By rate, VfL Wolfsburg is worst: 11 of 34 late leads, about 1 in 3.

Late leads not won, Europe's 5 big leagues Ahead after 75 minutes, then a draw or a defeat, 2023/24 to 2025/26
  1. FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga · 12 of 40 · 26 points 12
  2. BolognaSerie A · 12 of 47 · 25 points 12
  3. Crystal PalacePremier League · 11 of 43 · 26 points 11
  4. VfL WolfsburgBundesliga · 11 of 34 · 25 points 11
  5. BournemouthPremier League · 10 of 42 · 20 points 10
  6. BrentfordPremier League · 9 of 44 · 21 points 9
  7. Real SociedadLa Liga · 9 of 45 · 20 points 9
  8. West HamPremier League · 9 of 37 · 19 points 9
  9. InterSerie A · 9 of 81 · 18 points 9
  10. NewcastlePremier League · 8 of 53 · 19 points 8

The safest

TeamLate leadsNot won
Atalanta Serie A511
Barcelona La Liga682
Bayern München Bundesliga512
Union Berlin Bundesliga241
Real Madrid La Liga683

Teams with at least 20 late leads.

In the NPFL

Kwara United let the most late leads go: 9 of 38. Enugu Rangers and Katsina United did not let one go: 52 and 36 leads after 75 minutes, all won.

Late leads not won, NPFL 2023/24 to 2025/26
  1. Kwara United9 of 38 9
  2. Bayelsa United6 of 33 6
  3. Lobi Stars6 of 24 6
  4. Shooting Stars5 of 44 5
  5. Niger Tornadoes5 of 36 5
  6. Heartland4 of 23 4

What these numbers do not tell you

How this was measured

Use these figures

The numbers and charts on this page are free to use in an article or a post. Please credit PunditNG and link to this page.

Source: PunditNG, punditng.com/research/lost-leads/

Quick answers

How often does a team winning after 75 minutes fail to win?

In Europe's 5 big leagues, 14.8% of the time: 549 of 3,701 leads, 2023/24 to 2025/26. In the NPFL, 8.8%.

Which team throws away the most late leads?

FSV Mainz 05 and Bologna, 12 times each over 3 seasons. By rate, VfL Wolfsburg: 11 of 34, or 32.4%.

Which team is safest with a late lead?

Atalanta: 1 of 51 leads after the 75th minute not won. In the NPFL, Enugu Rangers did not let any of 52 go.

Is a one-goal lead at 85 minutes safe?

Not quite. In Europe's 5 big leagues a side one goal up after 85 minutes went on to win 83.2% of the time. About 1 in 6 did not.

Also measured: sure 2 odds · NPFL home advantage · bookmaker margin index